A few disclaimers right at the start. I am not a mining engineer, or any kind of an engineer. I am not a CPA or a financial analyst. Generation Mining is a development company, and there is an art and a knowledge base that helps in evaluating these kinds of projects. But... I was a General Partner of Lazard Freres. I have been in the markets since 1972. I thoroughly understand discounted cash flows and math as it relates to investments. Yes, I am an intuitive buyer but always have a focused and serious micro and macro perspective and put significant weight on management caliber. I do know the platinum group metals well, and as you perhaps may have noticed,...
I heard on CNBC this morning that Carnival, the cruise ship company, just raised $3.5 billion of unsecured, senior notes, due 2027, at a yield of 5.75%. WOW! It wasn't many years ago that this would be a 6 year US Treasury yield. OK. We are clearly in a different era, but would you really give unsecured money to Carnival at this rate? Well, I suppose one can argue that it is better than Greek bonds close to 0% or so many instruments that offer, incredibly, negative returns. Still, the message here is important: 1. There is an enormous amount of money looking for a home. 2. There is serious pressure to lock in yields, from insurance companies, to pension...
What would you rather have? An ounce of silver, or a $27 bottle of wine? For me, that is an easy choice. Sure, maybe I would think about it if the choice was an ounce of silver, or a bottle of Caymus Special Selection, or BV George de la Tour. Then we are talking about a $100 or $150 bottle of wine, which is more like the equilibrium price of silver, than today's $27. I mean, a dinner at the diner for $27 bucks or that ounce of silver? Let's not forget that silver IS a precious metal. It has a long, long history of serving as a store of value, currency, and vehicle for maintaining purchasing power. In ancient times, it...
There is a lot to say for the "old guard." Often the old guard is viewed as a bit dated, but filled with wisdom, experience, and relevant lessons for the future. Today, there are some excellent values in stocks that fit the bill of being the old guard. But what is the surprise? Though Juan Ponce de Leon never found the fountain of youth, I think all of these companies are on the hunt, and in fact, will find their inner vigor I own all of these "old guard" stocks that I believe remain fundamentally and technically cheap and interesting. The positions are outright stock, 1/21/22 leaps, and 1/20/23 leaps. I have found the leaps to be generally inexpensive, given...
Remember TWINS, Danny DeVito and Arnold Schwarzenegger? Danny and Arnold are unlikely twins. Danny is very SHORT, and very funny, and Arnold is BIG, very big, and both are connected by lineage, and indeed, their hearts. Semiconductors and platinum group metals are also twins and have a lot in common with Danny and Arnold! Well, both are SHORT and both are BIG! The shortages in semiconductors has now been telegraphed by Ford, leading to a reduction of vehicle output in the first quarter of up to a remarkable 20%. Now that shortage is BIG. Demand for semiconductors is critical in the production of an automobile, and the demand is inelastic. No chip, No car! It's that simple. Platinum group metals...
