I tweeted this morning @PlatinumRic that Sibanye Stillwater, SBGL, at this morning's premarket price of $9.2, was a buy. Sure it is a long way from the low $3s earlier in 2019.
Why is this stock my biggest position, and why do I remain bullish? First, at today's metal prices, the stock is value. Our wonderful CEO Neal Froneman bought the Montana based and prolific Stillwater mine at the bottom of the palladium market, when the metal was below $700. Today, spot palladium is $2000; the metal is in short supply, and both as a function of palladium fundamentals and the overall character of the metal markets, will likely trade at double today's price, and higher. SBGL is now the world's 2nd largest palladium miner and gets about half its revenue from this US based business, diversifying its production and asset base out of South Africa.
Neal did it again with the purchase of Lonmin at the very bottom of the platinum market, when the metal was also in the upper $700s. SBGL is now the world's largest platinum miner, and platinum remains stupidly cheap, trading at $935. SBGL is also the world's largest rhodium miner, with the metal trading at $6150 and a significant profit contributor. The biz is #1 in ruthenium as well, the lowest priced platinum group metal (PGM), now $255, exceedingly rare (1,000,000 ounces of annual production) and a metal with tremendous optionality for new uses... a feature in fact of all the PGMs. I am in fact, long platinum, palladium and ruthenium, as well as the Sibanye Stillwater stock position.
Remarkably, SBGL is also a world leading, top 5 gold producer, and although the gold is high cost, I expect there will be some ability to rationalize and that profits will be significant here as well, given my expectation of substantially higher gold prices as well.
With the markets where they are today, Neal is continuing to pay down debt and has the intention of resuming dividend payments in 2020, absent any substantive decline in prices.
Overall I think the company has a terrific portfolio of assets and great leadership and is still value at this price. If platinum group metal markets and gold take off as I expect, today's prices will look like a bargain.
I've written here many times about the logic of my bull view on the platinum group metals, and gold.
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